A graffiti mural of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson kissing, sprayed on a disused building in the Stokes Croft area of Bristol Ben Birchall / PA Wire/PA Images
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On Thurday, prime minister Theresa May congratulated president-elect Donald Trump during a phone call and said she was looking forward to working with him.
In return, Trump said he agreed Britain and the US have a long history of shared values and said the UK was a “very, very special place for me and my country”.
But the polite diplomatic tone hides an alarming truth: Trump’s election could play its part in undoing the last 40 years of UK foreign policy, which has been based on the dual pillars of a strong relationship with the US and with Europe.
Here are the three main challenges ahead:
Trump’s distrust of NATO is bad news for an independent UK.
Masks of Donald Trump are at Jinhua Partytime Latex Art and Crafts Factory in Jinhua, Zhejiang Province, China. Aly Song / Reuters
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Advocates for Brexit were keen to leave the EU to increase military collaboration among its remaining members, while the UK forged a stronger alliance with the US under NATO’s security umbrella. But Trump risks altering that balance.
Back in July, Trump sent European diplomats into a mild panic when he questioned whether, under his presidency, the US would honour its commitment under Article 5 of NATO to defend fellow NATO allies.
Asked whether he would intervene if Russia invaded the Baltic states, he offered only qualified support: “If they fulfil their obligation to us, the answer is yes.”
Now Trump has won, the whole concept of transatlantic defence doesn’t seem so rosy, according to Simon Hix, professor of political science at the London School of Economics.
“This is terrifying if you’re Latvia or Estonia – they are seriously worried that this means a deal will be done that means Russia gets them back. I’ve had students and colleagues emailing me about this who are apoplectic.
“But it’s terrifying for the UK because what happens if we don’t invoke Article 5? Are we relying on the rest of the EU to defend the Baltic states? That would be a security disaster for the UK.
“What would happen if he says to Putin, ‘If you want to send the tanks into Latvia I won’t do anything’? What would we do? We’d have war on our continent again, but he doesn’t seem to give a shit about that.”
We don’t know how much Trump cares about European security.
US Army soldiers man a PATRIOT launch pad during a joint military exercise with the Romanian Army on 8 November. Inquam Photos / Reuters
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The UK has long been tethered to US foreign policy – joining its military action and standing “shoulder to shoulder” in times of strife.
That steadfast support could be tested to its limit by a president who shuns the international community in favour of domestic security, and who tacitly supports and even encourages an expansionist Russia.
Richard Whitman, professor of politics and international relations at the University of Kent, told BuzzFeed News that the UK could be faced with some stark choices post-Brexit and post-Trump.
“We’ve never really struck out on our own and allowed profound differences to appear between what we and they want,” he said. “That’s why we went to war in Afghanistan and Iraq. And now if the Trump administration wants us to do something really, really different – which would be questioning … NATO – that would be a really difficult for the UK.
“The UK’s a European power and has to think about European security first and foremost. The US has been committed to that too across time, but if that was to be questioned that would be a significant alteration of the relationship that exists and would have an effect across the board.”
An isolationist America could hurt the UK’s trade goals.
An employee of a foreign exchange trading company works near monitors showing US President-elect Donald Trump speaking on TV. Toru Hanai / Reuters
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A large plank of the pro-Brexit argument prior to the referendum on 23 June was that the UK could go it alone outside the EU, its biggest trading partner, and become a bastion of free trade.
The problem is that Trump has called for protectionist policies to boost domestic jobs and growth – he says he’s anti–free trade, but pro–fair trade, and no one is quite sure what that means at the moment.
“So if he’s really serious about [curbing free trade] – and that’s a big if, of course – that’s a huge worry for the UK, as we go out into the world hoping there will be an open, global free trading regime,” said Hix.
“It’s not just about the UK–US free trade agreement and whether there could be one – and I don’t think there could be now – it’s also about the World Trade Organisation and free trade generally.
“If the US starts to undermine the WTO, why would China play by the rules? Why would anyone? Then we’d back to regional trade blocs and relying on the EU. The idea that the the UK could be this global buccaneering, global free-trading power – we can’t do that if global free trade is collapsing around our ears.”
